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  1. #401
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    In the last week, electoral calculus have halved their prediction of the size of the Tory majority twice. It's now down to just 12.

    There's other polls people are putting a lot of stock in that say it'll be more like 60.

    Safe to say that no one has a clue what's going to happen. No one knows how that increase of voters by a third is going to play out (or even if they'll make it to the polls). I reckon this could be one where in the key seats every vote becomes crucial.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  2. #402
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    Electoral Calculus back up to 34 as the predicted majority now. I think it is interesting to ponder how energised the 'youth' movement is that may come out and vote Labour in droves. It seems that, more than even the Lib Dems, Labour has a lot of support amongst the 18-25 bracket. I think it's always been that way (if I remember rightly the vote split in the 18-19 group in 2017 was something like 65% Labour and 20% Tory, with the rest squashed in the middle) but it feels even more so now that younger people, and new voters, are Labour supporters.

    The key is probably in getting all those young voters out to the polls - I think they also have the lowest voter turnout.

    Listening to Farage speak is borderline impossible. I just can't bring myself to do it, it's physically painful.

    EDIT: Just looked it up - nearly right, it was 66% Labour and 19% Tory. And apparently the crossover where voters become more likely to be Tory than Labour is aged 47.
    Last edited by Oliver; 1 Week Ago at 10:13 AM.

  3. #403
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    Also hearing... I hesitate to call them 'reports' but rumours at least, that the Lib Dems are expected to do better (based on party internal polling) than the current public opinion polling is telling us.

    Hugh Grant is also out campaigning to try and oust IDS in Chingford, and for Luciana Berger in Finchley and Golders Green (part of which used to be Margaret Thatcher's Constituency until 1992 - it was Labour under Blair and has been Tory since 2010)

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  4. #404
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    Mmm, Lib Dems have a bit of a record on misrepresenting polls, don't they? Might be on a completely different track there, mind you.

    Has anybody been on the offensive in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, looking to depose Boris Johnson? I seem to remember there was a huge Labour swing there in 2017 that left him with about a 5k vote lead - would be interesting to see if they're really gunning for him there. I saw Lord Buckethead is standing against Johnson, too.

  5. #405
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    I assume it's Labour/Tory internal polling from what I hear, not Lib Dem ones. But they definitely have a track record of putting some dodgy graphics on election material, if that's what you mean!

    Labour are having a go at Johnson in Uxbridge but I wouldn't hold out much hope of him losing it. If the 2,600 Lib Dems and Green voters all got behind Labour, and if the remaining UKIP voters all just stayed home or continued to vote UKIP, then you'd still need another 2,400 people who voted Tory in 2017 to change over, or that many new voters to counter them.

    Labour's trouble seems to be that they aren't going to do as well as 2017, so a lot of those weird seats that looked 'in play' aren't likely to be this time around. They might have to hold on to the kind of seats they did well in traditionally, and pick up some unpopular MPs seats, but I don't think the eye-catching ones from 2017 are going to be as interesting this time around.

    I'm not making that a proper prediction though, because it could be feckin' crazy on election night. It's so unpredictable.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  6. #406
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    So when does this all go down, gents? You've got me anxiously awaiting the results!

  7. #407
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    A week Thursday. Declarations will start coming in from around 6.15pm East Coast time, and by 10 in the evening it should be pretty clear which way it's going (unless it's on a knife-edge again).

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  8. #408
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    Meanwhile we've got your president over here, mizfan (well, maybe not 'your' president, but you get my drift) and apparently Boris Johnson is doing everything to avoid being photographed with him, despite them attending something like three different functions together yesterday.

    Seems the Tories think he's electoral poison.

  9. #409
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    If you believe what you read, he's run away because the other world leaders were saying mean things about him.

    Boris apparently refused the chance in his press conference to praise Trump personally a bunch of times. Probably smart given Trump's popularity here, and the President getting on Johnson ain't going to hurt him in an election campaign.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  10. #410
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    I honestly assumed they were bosom buddies, as they seem to be cut from the same cloth!

  11. #411
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    I don't think Boris is quite as Trumpian as Trump, in all honesty. Though he's certainly too far in that direction for our traditional Conservatism to make a lot of sense. But then, it's also a marriage of convenience. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Boris U-Turn and do whatever he wanted when he got in - to see him actually attempt the 'Trump pivot' that never happened.

    Still an awful candidate in all senses of the word, mind. It does feel as if a decent, boring, centrist Labour candidate could have mopped up here - if they could have survived the previous couple of years.

    John Curtice's latest data shows a few interesting things. Labour is squeezing the votes of the Lib Dems and Nationalists of people who voted remain. If they are in the right seats rather than broadly national, that's bad news for the Tories.

    The other thing is the squeeze on the Brexit Party vote doesn't seem to all be going to the Tories. Most of it is, but Labour leavers are also returning to Labour in some cases - and weirdly the Greens have increased their share of the people who voted leave in 2016, against four weeks ago. I suspect those are those weird 'Lib Dem swing to UKIP' protest voters we've seen before.

    Going to volunteer my services again, in case there's any questions about the election or the system or whatnot. I've been working on a project for the election so I'm more immersed in it than most people at the moment.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  12. #412
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    I've just been doing some - admittedly rough - polls analysis against 2017. This is all based on last week, so not sure what the numbers might say now.

    It seems the Tories are underperforming by about 3% in the polls against their 2017 performance for the fourth week of the election campaign, 43% compared to 46% then. So, effectively, Johnson is doing worse than May was in that election cycle at this point. The difference, unarguably, is that Johnson has come up from a low point in the polls whereas May went down - May kicked off the election campaign polling as high as 49%, even 50% in one ComRes/Mirror poll in April, just after the election was agreed to by parliament. Johnson, however, started the campaign averaging around the 35/36% mark.

    Now, a big part of that rise has, clearly, come as the Brexit Party support has nosedived, a trend that began in June when, believe it or not, they were topping a handful of polls in the mid-20s. Their support now hovers between 2 and 4% in most polls, having started this campaign at about 11% - seems almost a reasonable assumption that the similar gain in the Tory poll figures is a result of that.

    The real story, kind of, is Labour - again. In 2017 they started the polls at around 25% on average, and they ended up hitting mid- to high-30s come the end of the campaign. This time around they started out slightly down on that average at about 23% but have seen a similar surge in polling numbers to a (rough) 33% average - exactly where they were in week four of the 2017 election campaign.

    Unlike the Tory results, though, there doesn't seem to be an exact mirror of this 10 point gain in the polls for the other parties. Sure, the Lib Dems have dropped a bit, but realistically they started out at 16/17% and have dipped to around the 13/14% mark in most polls, so not a significant drop against Labour. It seems like they are picking up undecided voters in previous polls which is boosting their numbers (my understanding is that these poll results are weighted, so if 100 people are polled and 25 of them say they are undecided, the rest becomes a percentage of 75) - which potentially helps them in swing constituencies, I would imagine.

    On another, slightly related, point - Johnson currently polls lower in terms of personal ratings than May did a week before the 2017 election. Somehow, he is more disliked than Theresa May. People are also less satisfied with him than they were with May at the same point in 2017 - 36% to 43%.

    Lots of numbers, some people would certainly say they aren't really all that relevant, but it seems like Labour is slowly gaining in the polls while the Tories, at the very least, stagnate a bit.

  13. #413
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    That's some interesting analysis. I can't say I'm too stunned to find that Johnson is less popular than May, though. He inspires stronger feelings across the board, seems to be the case. More people don't like him and the people who don't like him, hate him. But he's got a section of the country who think he's the dog's bollocks.

    There could well be two things that will determine this election. One is new voters. We've seen guys like Dude pop into the thread and say they are going to vote for the first time, and voter registration is up by about a third, which is huge. More than enough to swing the election. Polling often tends to underplay those voters because they often register but never actually make it to the polling station on election day. So, if those people are underestimated, and if they are leaning in the directions that people think they will vote, it'll make a huge difference.

    The other thing is where are the Labour and Lib Dem votes. Right now, Labour are about 7-8% down on their 2017 result in polling terms, and the Lib Dems are up. Now, if that's scattered then it's a disaster for everyone but the Tories. But if that's just Labour voters moving to Lib Dem in areas such as the South West, then it changes the equation greatly - especially if Labour can, themselves, hold on to most of their seats.



    On the other hand, here's where the Tories will be optimstic - what happens if the UKIP votes from 2017 line up behind Boris?

    Crewe and Nantwich - 1800 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 48
    Keighley - 1200 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 249
    Barrow and Furness - 960 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 260
    Ashfield - 1800 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 441
    Ipswich - 1300 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 831
    Penistone and Stocksbridge - 3400 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 1300


    So leaving aside the fact that Brexit aren't running against the Tories in Tory seats and so there's next to no chance of any pick-ups, and if you add the seats where there's enough UKIP votes to come back to the Tories (even before factoring in any swing away from Labour) there's enough seats out there to give the Tories a majority.

    Of course, if Labour and Lib Dem voters hold their nose to vote against the Tories, and if there's a swing away from their party to compensate for the people coming in from Brexit/UKIP.... then things get incredibly unpredictable.

    But those three things are going to decide the election - turnout amongst the newly registered, tactical voting, and what happens in that handful of seats that look like easy Tory pick-ups.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  14. #414
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    I get the impression that people are just hunkering down and waiting for this to be over. But here's a summary of the Johnson campaign so far, in case anyone is only following at arm's length.

    November 5th - accused of suppressing the report into Russian interference in our elections.
    November 6th - Parliament dissolved for the election
    November 13th - Heckled by flood victims; refuses to apologise for speed of government response (two days later he is forced to admit he could have done more)
    November 18th - Jennifer Arcuri scandal heats up
    November 27th - forced to apologise for Islamophobia in the Tory party
    November 28th - Replaced with an ice-sculpture when he refused to take part in the climate debate; past comments about single mothers in his old newspaper column re-emerge; goes back on deal to give an interview to Andrew Neil when the other party leaders have already done so.
    November 29th - Tories threaten channel 4 with 'review of public service broadcasting obligations' if Johnson wins.
    December 1th - Accused by father of London Bridge attack of politicising his son's death
    December 5th - refuses what is perceived to be another tough interview with ITV's Julie Etchingham; campaign bus mobbed by protesters.
    December 6th - Andrew Neil resorts to putting out video challenging Boris to make good on his promise and do the interview, almost attempting to shame Boris into giving voters the chance to scrutinise him.
    December 8th - Boris at a call centre becomes a meme
    December 9th - Refuses to look at an image of a boy made to wait on a hospital floor - pocket's journalists phone instead (later apologises); is booed by protesters wearing Andrew Neil masks; Johnson threatens BBC.
    December 10th - plagiarises a Labour candidate's election video (which becomes another meme).
    December 11th - aide swears on live TV while Johnson dodges another interview by hiding in a fridge (leading a Conservative commenter and Trump ally to quip that "cowardice is never a good look"



    I mean, it's staggering when you put it all together (and look at the way it's all sped up in the last week or so). If you didn't know better you'd think he'd gone off the idea and was trying to lose.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  15. #415
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    And yet, by most accounts I've seen online, he's projected to win the election, possibly with a very small majority.

    Country's fucked.

    EDIT: Did the whoshouldivotefor test once again, now that poll day is upon us.

    Labour 88%
    Libe Dem 88%
    Green 87%
    Brexit Party 49%
    Conservative 44%
    UKIP 43%

    So pretty much identical to my last test 4 weeks ago, Greens have shot up a lot being the only major change.

    Never thought I'd agree more with Farage than any Tory person, but there you go...
    Last edited by Gooner; 3 Days Ago at 08:01 AM.


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  16. #416
    The Brain
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    If he still wins with all that, then he's about as Trumpian as I initially thought!

  17. #417
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    I don't imagine this will make any difference - politicians of either party have been briefing against their leaders for the whole campaign so it is nothing new - but Peter Oborne (formerly of right-wing bastions the Telegraph, Mail and Spectator) has endorsed Jeremy Corbyn, on the strength that however bad he is, Johnson is worse.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  18. #418
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    Election day. Please make sure you use your vote!

    I did that quiz just for kicks. Though I might have the wrong one because I actually got a negative score for Brexit and the Tories (in that order, interestingly). Green comfortably top, then Lib Dem, then Labour.

    The isidewith looks more like Gooner's results...

    Green 93%
    Labour 90%
    Lib Dem 88%
    Brexit 49%
    Tory 42%
    UKIP 31%

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  19. #419
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    Big turnouts seem to be being reported at polling stations. The common thought seems to be that a big(ger) turnout favours Labour over the Tories, not least because it's traditionally the Labour voting age groups that have the lower turnout.

    One point on that (to those who read this and haven't voted yet and aren't aware) - I know it's bastard cold and bastard wet out, but if you get to the polling station before 10pm when they close and there's a queue, stick it out. Once you're queuing, you are entitled to enter the polling station and cast your vote even if it's after 10pm when you get in.

    Take a big coat and a thermos

  20. #420
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Hearing different things about turnout at different polling stations. Always a chance that turnout could be up but where the votes are will end up deciding it.

    Best advice in any election situation is assume it is close and that your vote, or that of anyone who you can convince to go to the polls with you, might swing it.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  21. #421
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    Exit poll has the Conservatives winning comfortably. If it's anywhere near as accurate as the last couple of exit polls this is going to be a tory majority. And it could be huge.

    Don't know how many results to watch come in before I go to bed.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  22. #422
    Lamb of LOP anonymous's Avatar
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    Fuck it all.

  23. #423
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Blythe Valley has gone Conservative. This isn't going to be too far wrong.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  24. #424
    Lamb of LOP anonymous's Avatar
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    Nope. Mining towns going blue is about as tragic as it gets. It’s madness.

  25. #425
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    The thing about tactical voting? Tory majority there is 700 votes. 3000+ for Lib Dems and Green there. More than enough to have sent it the other way.

    Obviously they shouldn't have been needed there, but it does show the impact of what we're talking about. Wouldn't be surprised if that were repeated across the night, that Labour seats go where the other parties could have staunched the bleeding.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  26. #426
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    Two main factors appear to be Labour's downfall. Corbyn himself and the fact that the Brexit Party have snagged Labour votes. Only 1.30am but seen plenty of results that suggest Labour losing over 10% of the vote, with most of them being taken up by the Brexit Party...

    They'll end up with no seats, but will have had a significant say in the outcome.

    Corbyn must resign, there's no way back from this.


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  27. #427
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    Oh yeah, that's a given. He won't go fast but it's a matter of time.

    One thing is for sure - the UK is done. Don't know when but the Scots will go sooner or later. Wales will be more of a battle but it'll pick up again. I've even seen a petition for an independent Liverpool attracting attention. The last won't happen but it tells you how likely the first two are by comparison.

    Another thing - I think Labour could be on course for the most brutal civil war. I wouldn't be surprised to see a split that puts the 1980s split in the shade.

    Last point. First Past the Post is the shits. 43% deliver a huge majority is just plain wrong. And 13.6m votes for May deliver humiliation while 13.9m delivers the biggest Tory landslide since Margaret Thatcher? That's just rubbish of the highest order. And the sad thing is there's going to be no chance of changing that any time soon. Somewhere there's an alternate universe where the Yes side won the alternative vote referendum, the coalition continued after 2015, there was never a Brexit referendum, and the last couple of years were so much smoother.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  28. #428
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    I've just seen something that says, if this election had been counted on the Polish proportional representation model, the Tories would have 325 MPs and the non-Tories would also have 325 MPs.

    Honestly, I'm just heartsick by it all. Most of all by those who think this 'gets Brexit done', because that might be the biggest misnomer of the whole campaign (although it will, surely, be easier for things to be ratified in Parliament with this level of majority).

    I'm not even finding something to take solace in, which I've been able to with the past three elections. Just feel complete despair and sadness for the country, and the people in it who will feel the brunt of it.

    Soul searching will surely take place on the Labour side. It won't get them anywhere, though. They need to get a leader that's the Tony Blair version of Corbyn, the same policies that have energised the younger voters but with the ability to clearly convey that and without the historical issues that have dogged him. Ultimately whoever comes through is going to face the same media issues as Corbyn did, but if they at least don't come with strings attached which can be pulled at regularly that'll be helpful.

    Actually, I might have found some solace - a lot of these swings to the Conservatives have been dealt with on a single issue. Once the withdrawal is done, this again becomes a domestic fight and it's there where, finally, Johnson and his party will have to start taking a burden of blame for the state of things. The messaging about the impacts of the last nine years of Tory rule barely cut through in this cycle because it became the 'Brexit election'. I don't think it will be as easily avoided the next time.

  29. #429
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    Ugh, this seems like a terribly depressing result. We live in sucky times.

  30. #430
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    Fat lot of good my vote for Labour did.

    First time voting and it was completely depressing. I only watched the Exit poll and first vote because I didn't believe Labour would win and they didn't.

  31. #431
    Author of 101 WWE Matches To See Before You Die Samuel 'Plan's Avatar
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    I've told myself I wouldn't be political this weekend so proper thoughts in the week. I did just want to post quickly, though, that it's not all terrible - Swinson lost her seat and was forced out.

    And that's coming from a Lib Dem....

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