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  1. #401
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    In the last week, electoral calculus have halved their prediction of the size of the Tory majority twice. It's now down to just 12.

    There's other polls people are putting a lot of stock in that say it'll be more like 60.

    Safe to say that no one has a clue what's going to happen. No one knows how that increase of voters by a third is going to play out (or even if they'll make it to the polls). I reckon this could be one where in the key seats every vote becomes crucial.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  2. #402
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    Electoral Calculus back up to 34 as the predicted majority now. I think it is interesting to ponder how energised the 'youth' movement is that may come out and vote Labour in droves. It seems that, more than even the Lib Dems, Labour has a lot of support amongst the 18-25 bracket. I think it's always been that way (if I remember rightly the vote split in the 18-19 group in 2017 was something like 65% Labour and 20% Tory, with the rest squashed in the middle) but it feels even more so now that younger people, and new voters, are Labour supporters.

    The key is probably in getting all those young voters out to the polls - I think they also have the lowest voter turnout.

    Listening to Farage speak is borderline impossible. I just can't bring myself to do it, it's physically painful.

    EDIT: Just looked it up - nearly right, it was 66% Labour and 19% Tory. And apparently the crossover where voters become more likely to be Tory than Labour is aged 47.
    Last edited by Oliver; 6 Days Ago at 10:13 AM.

  3. #403
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    Also hearing... I hesitate to call them 'reports' but rumours at least, that the Lib Dems are expected to do better (based on party internal polling) than the current public opinion polling is telling us.

    Hugh Grant is also out campaigning to try and oust IDS in Chingford, and for Luciana Berger in Finchley and Golders Green (part of which used to be Margaret Thatcher's Constituency until 1992 - it was Labour under Blair and has been Tory since 2010)

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  4. #404
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    Mmm, Lib Dems have a bit of a record on misrepresenting polls, don't they? Might be on a completely different track there, mind you.

    Has anybody been on the offensive in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, looking to depose Boris Johnson? I seem to remember there was a huge Labour swing there in 2017 that left him with about a 5k vote lead - would be interesting to see if they're really gunning for him there. I saw Lord Buckethead is standing against Johnson, too.

  5. #405
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    I assume it's Labour/Tory internal polling from what I hear, not Lib Dem ones. But they definitely have a track record of putting some dodgy graphics on election material, if that's what you mean!

    Labour are having a go at Johnson in Uxbridge but I wouldn't hold out much hope of him losing it. If the 2,600 Lib Dems and Green voters all got behind Labour, and if the remaining UKIP voters all just stayed home or continued to vote UKIP, then you'd still need another 2,400 people who voted Tory in 2017 to change over, or that many new voters to counter them.

    Labour's trouble seems to be that they aren't going to do as well as 2017, so a lot of those weird seats that looked 'in play' aren't likely to be this time around. They might have to hold on to the kind of seats they did well in traditionally, and pick up some unpopular MPs seats, but I don't think the eye-catching ones from 2017 are going to be as interesting this time around.

    I'm not making that a proper prediction though, because it could be feckin' crazy on election night. It's so unpredictable.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  6. #406
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    So when does this all go down, gents? You've got me anxiously awaiting the results!

  7. #407
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    A week Thursday. Declarations will start coming in from around 6.15pm East Coast time, and by 10 in the evening it should be pretty clear which way it's going (unless it's on a knife-edge again).

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  8. #408
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    Meanwhile we've got your president over here, mizfan (well, maybe not 'your' president, but you get my drift) and apparently Boris Johnson is doing everything to avoid being photographed with him, despite them attending something like three different functions together yesterday.

    Seems the Tories think he's electoral poison.

  9. #409
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    If you believe what you read, he's run away because the other world leaders were saying mean things about him.

    Boris apparently refused the chance in his press conference to praise Trump personally a bunch of times. Probably smart given Trump's popularity here, and the President getting on Johnson ain't going to hurt him in an election campaign.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  10. #410
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    I honestly assumed they were bosom buddies, as they seem to be cut from the same cloth!

  11. #411
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    I don't think Boris is quite as Trumpian as Trump, in all honesty. Though he's certainly too far in that direction for our traditional Conservatism to make a lot of sense. But then, it's also a marriage of convenience. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Boris U-Turn and do whatever he wanted when he got in - to see him actually attempt the 'Trump pivot' that never happened.

    Still an awful candidate in all senses of the word, mind. It does feel as if a decent, boring, centrist Labour candidate could have mopped up here - if they could have survived the previous couple of years.

    John Curtice's latest data shows a few interesting things. Labour is squeezing the votes of the Lib Dems and Nationalists of people who voted remain. If they are in the right seats rather than broadly national, that's bad news for the Tories.

    The other thing is the squeeze on the Brexit Party vote doesn't seem to all be going to the Tories. Most of it is, but Labour leavers are also returning to Labour in some cases - and weirdly the Greens have increased their share of the people who voted leave in 2016, against four weeks ago. I suspect those are those weird 'Lib Dem swing to UKIP' protest voters we've seen before.

    Going to volunteer my services again, in case there's any questions about the election or the system or whatnot. I've been working on a project for the election so I'm more immersed in it than most people at the moment.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  12. #412
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    I've just been doing some - admittedly rough - polls analysis against 2017. This is all based on last week, so not sure what the numbers might say now.

    It seems the Tories are underperforming by about 3% in the polls against their 2017 performance for the fourth week of the election campaign, 43% compared to 46% then. So, effectively, Johnson is doing worse than May was in that election cycle at this point. The difference, unarguably, is that Johnson has come up from a low point in the polls whereas May went down - May kicked off the election campaign polling as high as 49%, even 50% in one ComRes/Mirror poll in April, just after the election was agreed to by parliament. Johnson, however, started the campaign averaging around the 35/36% mark.

    Now, a big part of that rise has, clearly, come as the Brexit Party support has nosedived, a trend that began in June when, believe it or not, they were topping a handful of polls in the mid-20s. Their support now hovers between 2 and 4% in most polls, having started this campaign at about 11% - seems almost a reasonable assumption that the similar gain in the Tory poll figures is a result of that.

    The real story, kind of, is Labour - again. In 2017 they started the polls at around 25% on average, and they ended up hitting mid- to high-30s come the end of the campaign. This time around they started out slightly down on that average at about 23% but have seen a similar surge in polling numbers to a (rough) 33% average - exactly where they were in week four of the 2017 election campaign.

    Unlike the Tory results, though, there doesn't seem to be an exact mirror of this 10 point gain in the polls for the other parties. Sure, the Lib Dems have dropped a bit, but realistically they started out at 16/17% and have dipped to around the 13/14% mark in most polls, so not a significant drop against Labour. It seems like they are picking up undecided voters in previous polls which is boosting their numbers (my understanding is that these poll results are weighted, so if 100 people are polled and 25 of them say they are undecided, the rest becomes a percentage of 75) - which potentially helps them in swing constituencies, I would imagine.

    On another, slightly related, point - Johnson currently polls lower in terms of personal ratings than May did a week before the 2017 election. Somehow, he is more disliked than Theresa May. People are also less satisfied with him than they were with May at the same point in 2017 - 36% to 43%.

    Lots of numbers, some people would certainly say they aren't really all that relevant, but it seems like Labour is slowly gaining in the polls while the Tories, at the very least, stagnate a bit.

  13. #413
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    That's some interesting analysis. I can't say I'm too stunned to find that Johnson is less popular than May, though. He inspires stronger feelings across the board, seems to be the case. More people don't like him and the people who don't like him, hate him. But he's got a section of the country who think he's the dog's bollocks.

    There could well be two things that will determine this election. One is new voters. We've seen guys like Dude pop into the thread and say they are going to vote for the first time, and voter registration is up by about a third, which is huge. More than enough to swing the election. Polling often tends to underplay those voters because they often register but never actually make it to the polling station on election day. So, if those people are underestimated, and if they are leaning in the directions that people think they will vote, it'll make a huge difference.

    The other thing is where are the Labour and Lib Dem votes. Right now, Labour are about 7-8% down on their 2017 result in polling terms, and the Lib Dems are up. Now, if that's scattered then it's a disaster for everyone but the Tories. But if that's just Labour voters moving to Lib Dem in areas such as the South West, then it changes the equation greatly - especially if Labour can, themselves, hold on to most of their seats.



    On the other hand, here's where the Tories will be optimstic - what happens if the UKIP votes from 2017 line up behind Boris?

    Crewe and Nantwich - 1800 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 48
    Keighley - 1200 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 249
    Barrow and Furness - 960 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 260
    Ashfield - 1800 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 441
    Ipswich - 1300 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 831
    Penistone and Stocksbridge - 3400 UKIP votes, Labour majority of 1300


    So leaving aside the fact that Brexit aren't running against the Tories in Tory seats and so there's next to no chance of any pick-ups, and if you add the seats where there's enough UKIP votes to come back to the Tories (even before factoring in any swing away from Labour) there's enough seats out there to give the Tories a majority.

    Of course, if Labour and Lib Dem voters hold their nose to vote against the Tories, and if there's a swing away from their party to compensate for the people coming in from Brexit/UKIP.... then things get incredibly unpredictable.

    But those three things are going to decide the election - turnout amongst the newly registered, tactical voting, and what happens in that handful of seats that look like easy Tory pick-ups.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

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