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  1. #361
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    Hoyle only needs another 70 votes, I understand?

    Genuinely not sure what each candidate stands for or what it means going forward if Hoyle (or anyone else) gets appointed speaker. Probably only find out in January or so whether they'll be similar to Bercow on things like SO24 and so on, or whether they will be different.

  2. #362
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    All of their pitches were basically 'I'm not John Bercow'. Though quite what it'll mean in practice, who's to say?

    Yeah, he's nearly over the line to be honest. Barring pretty much everyone swinging behind Eleanor Laing. He's way better off than Bercow was after the first ballot. Although that's the only like-for-like election in recent history to compare it to, so not a huge sample.

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  3. #363
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    I don't know anyting about politics but have just registered to vote by post. I am gonna vote for Labour.

  4. #364
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    Good for you Dude. You know what constituency you live in?

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  5. #365
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    Hey, it's an election day over here too! Nothing that seems as high stakes as what y'all have going on though. I do get to vote against a mayoral candidate who wants to ban abortions because of the Bible though, so that'll be fun.

  6. #366
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Always good to get the chance to vote - better still when it's something to believe in.

    Interesting to start for the Tories. The campaign hasn't even really started yet and:

    1) They've been caught doctoring footage of a Labour Shadow minister to make their argument look worse. Even pro-Tory media outlets have accused them of creating 'fake news'.
    2) They've re-used a line that Boris had used in a 2009 article to attack Gordon Brown/Alastair Darling.... and immediately got caught.
    3) Jacob Rees-Mogg implied that the people who burned in Grenfell Tower did so because they were poor and stupid. The Tory MP for North West Leicestershire, Andrew Bridgen, basically doubled down on this later in the day - even though Mogg had already apologised.
    4) Perhaps most important of all, the Secretary of State for Wales, Alun Cairns, has had to resign after it's come out that one of his aides deliberately sabotaged a rape trial, and that he knew about it and did nothing.


    Not a good beginning. If I didn't know better I'd suggest that maybe they don't actually want to win.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  7. #367
    Toubabo Koomi The Dude's Avatar
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    That seems possible to me. I do have a bad feeling the Tories want Labour to deal with Brexit and then make them look bad afterwards. That could just be paranoia though.

  8. #368
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    I used to think that could be the case but to be honest they've botched it, if so. Boris and Rees-Mogg now have their hands too dirty, and they've implicitly pulled in the ERG and all those hardliners that they've made back the deal. They needed to stay back, keep their powder dry, let someone else take the fall and come in later if that was going to work.


    It goes from bad to worse for the Tories. James Cleverly refused to go on SKY News a few minutes ago, and lo and behold Kay Burley has empty chaired him, basically telling the audience that the Tory spokesperson refuses to go answer questions despite being stood fifteen feet away. This feels like it's unravelling before our eyes.

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  9. #369
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    That Kay Burley moment is a great one, by the way - really feels like she's fired up because he's trying to avoid the scrutiny she was going to put him under.

    I'm a little concerned that the Lib Dems are tying themselves too much to Jo Swinson in a Presidential style campaign instead of making it about policies. There are two ways to look at the Lib Dem campaign, for me, one is to think of them as the highest profile party building themselves an anti-Brexit platform, the other is to consider the previous voting record of people like Swinson. Focus on the first could be a real vote winner, but associate with the second and if people do their research they could start to drift away.

    Swinson's record isn't that good/positive:

    - she voted to cut benefit payments including those for people with illness or disability
    - she voted against increased income tax over 150,000
    - she voted against a tax on banker’s bonuses
    - she voted to cut funding for young people seeking jobs or further training
    - she voted against slowing rail fee increases
    - she voted against restriction on landlord fees
    - she voted against local government funding
    - she voted to sell off state-owned forests
    - she voted to restrict legal aid

    There's a lot of very easy attack angles there for Labour, should they choose to take them.

  10. #370
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    I really dislike Kay Burley (and Sky News in general really), but that was a damning moment for the tories.


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  11. #371
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    As far as I know Labour are against benefit cuts. The gov should spend money on tackling help people make good decisions with their money.

    Also cuts to the NHS etc etc

    Just makes sense.

  12. #372
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    Sense depends on the seat you're in of course, but yeah, if those are the issues that matter to you voting on those lines can never be a bad thing.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  13. #373
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    Of course. I suppose if I was rich I wouldn't vote Labour, because that would make more sense. Unless I was actually a decent person, but that is hard to come by these days.

  14. #374
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    I want to say it's at least people are still being caught/called out/held accountable for all that shady shit Pete mentioned earlier. Feels sometimes like over here the average citizen would hardly blink at that stuff.

  15. #375
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    It's not really as good as I made it sound. There's some accountability in the middle, but we're basically divided into two camps now and those two groups will let people get away with murder.

    The number of potential MPs I've seen have to stand down because the vetting process was shit is incredible. We're only a few days in and I've seen half a dozen scandals.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  16. #376
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    There are always some - but from memory it's a lot more common during council/local elections than during GE campaigns.

    Boris caught out on his 'no checks on goods between NI and GB' again today - it's like he doesn't understand his own deal, or is a compulsive liar.

    I wish someone would set up a page like they do for Trump's lies in the US - https://www.politifact.com/personali...yruling/false/

    EDIT: Aha! https://boris-johnson-lies.com/
    Last edited by Oliver; 4 Weeks Ago at 10:24 AM.

  17. #377
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Brexit Party are standing aside in the 317 seats that the Tories won last time.

    The odds of the big landslide are still pretty short - but the chances of a major Tory collapse are also not really there any more, either. Barring the Lib Dems slamming them in a few areas.

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  18. #378
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    What seems odd to me is that Farage is now asking the Tories to stand aside in marginal seats so that his party get a clean run at taking them. It's almost like he doesn't understand the point of the General Election - for the Tories - is to get a majority that validates this deal Johnson's got. Weird, to be honest.

    Labour reporting they've repelled a cyber attack today.

  19. #379
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    I wonder if it's his way of deflecting, because Brexit are still under pressure to stand down in marginals. He has to know that there is no way the Tories can actually stand down like that. It must be just to try and shift the conversation away from his party giving even more ground.

    I've seen a bit on the 'net to suggest that while the future Lord Farage is getting a lot of praise from Tories, he's left plenty of Brexit Party people furious - especially those who are out of pocket because they were going to run in Tory seats.

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  20. #380
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    Got my poll card today, but my friends was a different colour and said "postal vote" on it. I signed up to vote by post dammit. I don't know what to do.

    It's not really a big deal but it just shows how fkin useless the Gov is. Before anyone says maybe you cant vote by post, when I was signing up, it said anyone can vote by post. Bizzare.

    Also got yet another form to fill in if I want to keep my benefits. I just filled one in a few months ago but its only a minor annoyance. People on UC have to jump thru hoops every couple of weeks to get there money, which is also F all compared to sickness benefits.

  21. #381
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Do you have a postal voting statement as part of what they've sent you?

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  22. #382
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    Was just about to edit my post. I just checked the back of the card and it says "IF" we decide to give you a postal vote. Nevermind it's not as if I'm in a wheelchair or have eyesight problems so fair enough. I'll just have to remember to do it on the day.

    From what I've heard it sounds like the torys will win which is completely depressing.

    EDIT: Just heard on the radio quote "Labour will cripple the NHS". I'm sure that's not the case as just the other day on the same radio station they said Labour plan to spend loads on mental health services. No wonder so many people are confused.
    Last edited by The Dude; 4 Weeks Ago at 08:53 AM.

  23. #383
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    Labour are suggesting they'd be putting more cash into the NHS than the Tories.

    And perhaps the misleading thing is that spending as a whole is up - 2013-2017 (can't find detail beyond that) total spend went up by ~25bn in total. But as a percentage of GDP it's down over the same period by 0.2%, while growth in spending has decreased over the same period (from 4.6% 2013-2014 to 3.3% 2016-17 - and in 2017 prices the changes are 2.9% down to 1.1% respectively). I think the statistic is something like traditionally spending the NHS has grown by 3.7% on average since it was established, but since 2009/10 to today growth has only been averaging 1.5%. So, really, why is the NHS struggling and who has overseen that period?

    Oh, it's the Tories.

    Waiting list performance is worse than ever, as well - down to something like only 86% making the target.

    I see Johnson is on the BBC now, essentially turning every answer he gives into 'well, Labour are going to have two referendums in 2020'.
    Last edited by Oliver; 3 Weeks Ago at 05:51 AM.

  24. #384
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    I tell you what, the Tories have done Farage up like a kipper (No pun intended). They've turned his own party against him, killed off the threat from the right, have basically wounded him as a cause from which they can rally around again, and rather than worrying about him and have turned him into someone that their own press can attack at will.

    I expected Nigel to have more sense than to let them do this, as it's been so obvious. But I am surprised at how quickly it's all happened - how fast it went from adulation to Brexit Party groups circulating photos of Nigel with TRAITOR emblazoned across them.

    EDIT: I'm not sure what's happened to their model, but Electoral Calculus updated their prediction today to cut the Tory majority in half. They are still saying there's a near 60% chance of a Tory majority but I think it shows a certain volatility there.

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  25. #385
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    I agree on the Tories and Farage - he went from standing people in every seat unless they agreed a pact to standing aside candidates in all Tory held seats without actually gaining anything, which was one misstep.

    What's the thought on the broadband policy from Labour? Not something I expected to see in this campaign, but sounds like a potential vote winner if the Tories don't come back other than calling it a 'crazed communist' policy.

  26. #386
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    Honestly? I see it as an empty pledge that they have no chance of implementing. However, it will appeal to younger voters.

    Personally, I love the concept, but then reality hits, and coming from an IT background, it's just not possible from technical point to achieve that by 2030 (I believe that is the date they have thrown about). I'd focus on making sure fibre is accessible for everyone in the country before suggesting they give it away for free. That's my take anyway.


    Took my regular pre-election, pre-manifesto quiz yesterday. Agreed on 90% issues split between Green (nope), Lib Dem and Labour (nope). Was surprised to see I only matched with the tories on 50% of issues, which is way down from the 70% odd from the last election. Either I have changed my viewpoint on things massively in two years (unlikely) or the tories have.

    I'll do another closer to poll day, be interesting what it turns out to be.


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  27. #387
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    I thought it was a really weird thing to promise, to be quite honest with you. One thing it did, though, was it got a lot of attention, and even though the polls haven't started to really reflect it yet there's some noise coming from parts of the Tory party that they think Labour's campaign is better than Boris's, and that if the polls do turn sharply - say, because of NHS waiting times, floods, Jennifer Arcuri, or any number of the things that seem to be piling up - then you could find yourself back in hung parliament territory very quickly.


    It's funny you say that about the Tories changing their positions, Gooner, because there used to be a lot of different reasons you could put forward for voting for the Tories that you can't really claim anymore. You can't do it if you believe in the Free Market, because their economic policy is now basically opposed to free markets, and will be until we've got the EU situation sorted. It's really difficult to vote for them on a Law and Order platform, given the way the police have been gutted. So really there's only that kind of flag-waving, tubthumping appeal left. If you weren't that sort of Tory, it's hard to see how you can vote for them out of anything except habit. But yes, you're not wrong - the Tories have been shifting to the right since Cameron's pivot back to Thatcherism in 2008.

    Becoming very clear to me, this- it's one of those elections where you need to hold your nose and vote for whoever can win in your seat, to achieve the closest thing to your goal. It's no time for getting hung up on purity, or 'I'd never vote for them'. I've always said if I lived in a seat where the only person who could beat a fascist was a Tory that I agreed with on virtually nothing, I'd still vote for the Tory. Now, I don't think that's an exact parallel for the situation we're in, but it's the same degree of seriousness. Have to think seriously, and effectively, about what it is you want to see. And hey, if you feel that strongly about backing one party but it's useless in your seat, there are always options like Swap my Vote. I live in a safe seat so I'd even consider swapping with someone in a marginal who wanted to vote tactically elsewhere too, so I'm not passing on things I wouldn't do myself.

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  28. #388
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prime Time View Post
    Becoming very clear to me, this- it's one of those elections where you need to hold your nose and vote for whoever can win in your seat, to achieve the closest thing to your goal. It's no time for getting hung up on purity, or 'I'd never vote for them'. I've always said if I lived in a seat where the only person who could beat a fascist was a Tory that I agreed with on virtually nothing, I'd still vote for the Tory. Now, I don't think that's an exact parallel for the situation we're in, but it's the same degree of seriousness. Have to think seriously, and effectively, about what it is you want to see. And hey, if you feel that strongly about backing one party but it's useless in your seat, there are always options like Swap my Vote. I live in a safe seat so I'd even consider swapping with someone in a marginal who wanted to vote tactically elsewhere too, so I'm not passing on things I wouldn't do myself.
    I'd say I'm a swing voter, if only because I don't feel I conform to any particular party. I've voted for Labour and Lib Dem in the past, and I always consider Tories because I'm not set in stone. I've never really agreed with enough of their policies, so it's never come down to voting for them, but every election they get a fair crack of the whip in my mind. One thing that has changed is that a few years ago, before brexit, I did think they had the right mentality on the economy. A lot of people didn't, and I understand why, but I did feel that spending less frugally instead of raising taxes was the better option to stabilise the economy. Perhaps explains the drop in % from my previous post.


    I had not idea swap my vote was a thing! Surely that can't be allowed!! I mean, I'm all for it haha, but thought the government would crack down on something like that.


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  29. #389
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    It's not really any different from the pairing system they use in Westminster to be honest. And so long as you cast one vote, they can't really legislate for what influences that decision.

    Thanks for sharing above by the way, enjoyed reading what you had to say - but in case there was any confusion, that last paragraph wasn't a continuation of the bit addressed to you. I was just thinking aloud of the position we find ourselves in, through that bit!

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  30. #390
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    Haha yeah I quoted your message mainly for the swap vote bit to be honest!


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  31. #391
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    It's absolutely worth looking into if you're in a safe seat and feel like it won't make a difference, or if you are in a marginal and are pulled between wanting to register a vote for one party that can't really win on the one hand, and wanting to give your vote the greatest weight you can on the other.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  32. #392
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
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    Yeah I might actually, Labour majority of 17,000...


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  33. #393
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    It's more than 35,000 here. I live in one of the safest seats in the country - one of the places where they'd vote in a cabbage if it had the right colour rosette pinned to it.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  34. #394
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    We've actually got a Green candidate this time around - we didn't in 2017 - which makes me consider voting for them. Labour are closest in the polls, but the Tory lead is pretty significant, around 13,000 votes.

  35. #395
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    I reckon you'd be a prime candidate for a vote swap, Oli. Maybe you could find someone who wants to vote Green in a seat that Labour or the Lib Dems can win and the Greens can't, and do a deal.


    I'm doing some work on an election project and I'm seeing more of the media than usual, and the right wing press are pretty bullish about Boris's chances. Doesn't seem that everyone shares that pessimism I mentioned about the campaign the other day. It might be that Labour are running out of time to try and turn this around, unless the polls are way off.

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  36. #396
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    Wouldn't be a bad idea, to be honest. Will have to get in touch with my Mum and Dad, I know our constituency used to be a Lib Dem/Tory marginal (the only time I voted Lib Dem in my life was 2005, I had just passed 18 in the April. Come 2010 I'd moved up North) but the LD vote was decimated in 2015 spectacularly - turnout was only down by a little under 300 total votes, the Lib Dem vote went from about 29k down to just shy of 12k. The Tories only gained about 3k of those votes, with the rest swinging largely to UKIP and Greens, Labour languishing in fifth despite gaining about 2k in votes. Labour got a surge in 2017 to end up third, but essentially the Tories cemented their position as runaway incumbents.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister, Annunziata, ran as a Tory candidate there in 2010. She's gone to the Brexit Party this year, although isn't running again as far as I'm aware.

    Hey, complete self interest, but the Green Party are launching their manifesto today - 10 big policy commitments.

    A Green New Deal to make carbon emissions net zero by 2030.
    A second EU referendum.
    At least 6bn extra a year for the NHS.
    Scrapping university fees.
    A “sustainable economy bill” to ensure the economy functions within environmental limits.
    A “future generations bill”, requiring decisions to consider the needs of the future.
    Creating a universal basic income.
    Building 100,000 zero-carbon social rented homes a year.
    Improving tenants’ rights and lowering rents.
    Introducing proportional representation voting and an elected upper house of parliament.

  37. #397
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Was able to find that seat - current predictions are for the Lib Dems to knock about 10% off what is a pretty healthy majority.

    Must be fun as the Greens - you see Boris and Corbyn making promises they are never going to be able to keep and then you realise that since you aren't going to win, you can basically say what you like, if everyone else is doing it too. Although that did bite the Lib Dems pretty hard after 2010....

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  38. #398
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    The really...I don't know if it's curious or something else...thing is that a lot of Green policies end up entering the more mainstream parties in some way. Obviously things like the climate change policies, but also a lot of (re)nationalisation policies were originally Green Party ones, as was a national basic income which I think Labour have now supported.

    I suppose the issue for now, and the future, is how do they stay relevant with all the parties starting to adopt climate change policies. Do they promise to do it quicker? Or do it in a more radical way? Interesting times for them, as their standard messaging needs a bit of a reboot.

  39. #399
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
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    Stepping away from the election for a minute, Arron Banks twitter has been hacked. I haven't seen the extent of what's out there but the first reactions seem to be that it's some pretty damning stuff. I'm waiting to see how far this might reach.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  40. #400
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    That's interesting - I wonder what the legal side of things is on reporting/investigating this? I saw Carole Cadwalldr has received some of the information - no indication she hacked the account - and she's obviously the journalist who's investigated Banks for some time now.

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