Page 9 of 10 FirstFirst ... 78910 LastLast
Results 321 to 360 of 379
  1. #321
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
    Where do (UK) people sit on the potential for a second referendum? I keep swaying on it, because I fear that the Government won't put one forward that isn't 'deal or no deal', whereas I'd rather we had 'deal or remain'. I guess you could do a three way one with an alternative vote system - does anybody know if there is a precedent for that?
    I don't really believe in referendums (referenda?) in a Parliamentary democracy, so that's always my baseline position on a second one.

    But to the second point here, I don't believe we've ever had a referendum (certainly not on a national level) that wasn't a simple yes/no.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  2. #322
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    It's interesting - presumably it's possible to have a three way referendum but it would need to be on an alternative vote basis. You'd have to assume that there would most likely be a convergence around leaving with a deal, as those that want to remain would rather leave with a deal than without, where as those that want to leave would rather leave with a deal than remain. The only question is - does the deal actually get through the first round of voting, or are we more likely to see something like a 40-20-40 split that pits no deal and remain directly against each other?

    Rumours now are that Johnson is showing some willing to move back to a Northern Ireland only backstop - essentially an Irish Sea border. This is the solution which May said threatened the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom, potentially leaving NI in the EU for the foreseeable future until a trade deal is agreed for the whole of the UK. I can't imagine the DUP or the ERG backing this as a solution, so then it likely comes down to this - can Johnson get enough support for this approach from those he took the whip from, and from some Labour leavers, to get it through Parliament?

    Also notable that the ERG put forward, and May's Government accepted, two amendments which would make such an agreement impossible - preventing HMRC from collecting tariffs on behalf of another territory (which they would theoretically have to do for NI in this case, as it would be collecting EU tariffs - if my read of the situation is right), and prohibiting NI from entering a separate customs union to the UK.

    All in all, it seems like if this is the concession Johnson is wiling to make, the deal is doomed to once again fail at the Parliamentary stage - unless someone else budges. Perhaps the DUP and ERG abstain, rather than actively vote against.

  3. #323
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    I could see the ERG getting on board, if they thought that this was the best way through it to actually get what they want. It wouldn't surprise me at all if their attitude became 'fuck Northern Ireland', given the way they've handled the rest of it.

    The DUP is another matter. I'd be surprised if they went along with anything that saw them positioned differently from the rest of the UK (unless it's to their own advantage, which could be the way the breakthrough happens. A bit of realpolitik.)

    As for the 3-way referendum thing, it's theoretically possible, but given how much contention there is over the question for these things... I'm not sure I see it. I imagine it gets whittled down to two options, one way or the other - Deal/no deal if it's led by a Tory administration and deal/remain if it's led by virtually anyone else.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  4. #324
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    I don't know, man. All this Brexit 'tunnel' stuff or whatever they're calling it just feels like a lot of activity that'll ultimately yield nothing.

    I did see Amber Rudd calling out the ERG for sexism, because they seem to be more willing to back Johnson than May over what could end up being quite similar deals.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  5. #325
    The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    3,177
    What the heck is Brexit Tunnel??

  6. #326
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
    Whether this means we're entering the 'tunnel' (the nickname to intense negotiation, which I always envisage as everyone being locked in a windowless room with bad coffee and Danish pastries until they agree something) or whether it's a pseudo-tunnel - perhaps a wide bridge? - seems a bit unclear. It's certainly being reported as the former by the press, but I'm not sure it's been formally confirmed as being that by the UK/EU.
    It's been pushed over the page now, but here's the bit from Oli's post that talked about it.

    We're in that intensive negotiation stage at the moment.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  7. #327

  8. #328
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Deal done. Text coming.

    Take this for what you will and remember I've guessed wrong on this before, but.... I've got an odd feeling that though this doesn't look great for Boris this morning, somehow and some way this will end up getting over the line. I'm not sure what I'm basing that on exactly. Feels like there's something in the water though.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  9. #329
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Location
    Newcastle upon Tyne
    Posts
    896
    Quote Originally Posted by Prime Time View Post
    Deal done. Text coming.

    Take this for what you will and remember I've guessed wrong on this before, but.... I've got an odd feeling that though this doesn't look great for Boris this morning, somehow and some way this will end up getting over the line. I'm not sure what I'm basing that on exactly. Feels like there's something in the water though.
    I have the exact same feeling. In the sense that it'll get through and we won't know the real ramifications of it until afterwards...


    I've tried taking up column writing, check it out here!

    Words from a Gooner #2: 7 Treatments for Wrestlemania Fever

  10. #330
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    The DUP seem to be refusing to back it - https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/...94205496991747

    Question then is - how many of the Labour Leavers and the 21 Tories he took the whip from can he convince to back him? But even then, he's likely to struggle - there are only 288 Tory MPs to start with. The ERG have indicated they will hear what the DUP have to say before deciding on how to vote, I think, but even if you were to say all 288 Tories vote with Johnson - he still needs another 38 on side. And if he's not got the DUP with him he's going to really struggle to hit that, I think (although I can't tell for sure - I think there were only 5 Labour MPs that backed May on her last deal. But I think there were as many as 19 that recently wrote to Juncker to say they wanted to leave asap.)

    This is win-win territory for Johnson, though - or he will see it as such. If he manages to scrape this deal through, he's the man who achieved Brexit - regardless of the shape of it. If he doesn't, he can call an election which Corbyn will back and tell people that Parliament handcuffed him, he had to request an extension, vote for him to help unlock the handcuffs and break us out of the EU jail like you wanted us to.

    That people vs Parliament rhetoric will surely see him well over the line in an election, if the polls are anything to go by, and then he can claim a mandate for a no deal and just dump everything.

    Given the deal appears to be worse than the one May had rejected repeatedly - at least, the commentary I'm reading suggests as much - it seems he's banking on that election messaging working. Throw a couple of 'traitor's and 'surrender's in there and you've probably got his six weeks of campaign messaging.

    I'm kind of expecting that the same thing happens with this deal as happened with May's deal - there's an initial rush of Government praise for it, but it gets unpicked gradually as the day goes on and come about 5pm it's clear that it's dead in the water.

  11. #331
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Saturday's going to be very interesting for sure. Just to revisit your numbers though, Oli -

    288 Tories
    + 21 Tory Rebels
    + 19 Labour

    = 328.

    Which I think means - once Sinn Fein and the speaker are accounted for - they can lose a combination of six votes from the Labour rebels and ex-Tories, and if they hold every member still in the party they'd pass it by 1 even with opposition from the DUP?

    Conversely, if Labour whip hard against the deal and the independents all come out against:

    244 Labour
    +36 Independents
    + 35 SNP
    +19 LD
    +10 DUP
    +5 IGC
    +4 Plaid
    +1 Green

    = 354. No way back if they're all even close to united against it.

    Incidentally, how weird is it that the third biggest group in the Commons is 'independent'.

    EDIT: Jean Claude Juncker has ruled out a Brexit extension. Whether or not that'll hold if the deal is voted down is anyone's guess, but it's a significant development and could be the sort of thing that shifts the parliamentary arithmetic.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  12. #332
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    Bloody hell, Juncker dropping a bombshell - saying the EU will not grant any extension to the deal. Now, how much weight that holds given that the EU27 will have the vote on it is interesting, but you'd have to consider it as showing the general feel of the EU going into this period of discussion.

    Meanwhile, the UK Parliament has voted to allow amendments to be brought on Saturday.

    Potentially, this means a whole host of options are open - including an amendment to force a second referendum on the deal.

    What I think might transpire, if Juncker's words are taken at face value, is that someone (possibly a group of Lib Dems and SNP MPs) bring forward an amendment that states if there is no agreement on the deal, and no agreement in the house for no deal, then Article 50 has to be revoked. That could be really interesting.

  13. #333
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Saturday's going to be crazy, we know that much already. The Rugby might not be the biggest scrum of the day.

    Some of the rebels have said they won't vote for it - Dominic Grieve is the only one to nail his colours to the mast so far, I think. The word out of Labour is they are expecting 'more than nine' to rebel against the three-line whip. The DUP are not only solidly against, but are apparently trying to convince Tories on the right of the party not to vote for it. The narrative coming out of Northern Ireland is that this is a betrayal of the Unionist community by the people who claim to be their allies. Sam Gyimah has actually said CCHQ called him to try and get him to vote for the deal even though he's joined the Lib Dems since leaving the Tories, so they clearly think they need everyone they can get. One of Corbyn's key advisors reportedly thinks it will pass.

    'Achingly tight' is how I've seen it described, and I think that's accurate. I've just watched a video that says the magic number is 320 - which means if everyone still in the Tory party backs the deal that 3/4 of the Tory rebels returning to the fold and 18 Labour rebels or votes from other parties would get it over the line. And abstentions could be crucial here. Conversely, of course, if the Labour rebels do only number ten, and every one else turns up and there are no abstentions and everyone does what they've said they are going to - it couldn't pass. The best Boris could hope for would be to lose by a vote, if only ten Labour MPs rebelled, even if he carried all the Tories and independents that are still up for grabs.

    Amendments on Saturday could also play a big part in this.

    Outlandish scenario, but one thing could theoretically happen here. This passes - then the SNP call for the vote of no confidence in Boris. Labour's MPs who rebelled come back to the fold, because now they aren't voting for Brexit but to prop up a Tory government - and the DUP, feeling betrayed, vote with the opposition. That'd mean that the government fell minutes after passing their deal. God knows what happens then.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  14. #334
    The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    3,177
    So what's the most optimistic outcome here?

  15. #335
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    I think we're way past optimism at this point.... and to be honest, I think anyone who tells you something is more possible than anything else, should be treated with suspicion.

    I honestly think all outcomes are still really on the table, though Saturday could change that. No telling as yet.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  16. #336
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    Quote Originally Posted by mizfan View Post
    So what's the most optimistic outcome here?
    Honestly, I'd love to have optimism that this was going to all blow up in Johnson's face and someone would post an amendment that, should this deal be rejected, we revoke Article 50 so that we can 'get Brexit done' by October 31st one way or the other, but I don't think such an amendment would be supported within the house.

    Johnson's desperately trying to batter this deal through before October 31st so that he can stick to the deadline, and word today is that he may have enough support to push through the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), but it seems unlikely that he will get a subsequent bill to review it all in three days through - there are a lot of issues with that, but the main one is that there's not enough time for scrutiny.

    For example, there's a clause in the WAB that allows for an extension to be requested for the 'implementation period' by the end of next year. However, even now with minimal scrutiny there are huge problems with this and it seems like a clear trap door for a Government to pursue a no deal withdrawal from the EU - for a start, it requires a vote by MPs to request it, so if there's enough support in the house any attempt at requesting it could be rejected. Now that might not matter right now, but if there was a GE between now and then and a sudden influx of (say) multiple Brexit Party MPs, as well as a lot of no deal/hard Brexit supporting Tories elected over those that previously left the Government, it could very easily become a knife edge vote. On top of that, in order for there to be a vote by MPs the Government (and, perhaps more significantly, the PM) needs to put a motion before the house, so they could just choose not to do it and (to undoubted uproar) leave with no deal without MPs having to agree to it - we'd be left at the mercy of the Government. And finally, it's not even a decision to be made in 14 months when this implementation period ends, but one that needs to be agreed on by the UK by July 1st, 2020 - and we're currently looking at a timetable where the new EU Commission doesn't sit until the start of December, Johnson may force a General Election through, and nobody knows what might happen in terms of timelines. Currently I think there are estimates on both sides that negotiations on the next step won't even start until next Spring - so basically there would be three months to determine whether or not we need to request an extension to the implementation period, which would be determined based on how those first three months have gone. It's an impossible thing, on paper.

    And add to that a new wrinkle - if we extend beyond the end of 2020, we have to negotiate how much we pay to the EU during that period. But we're a third party. We're not party to the budget determinations for the 7 year period from 2020 to 2027. The EU can essentially think of a number, because we're not involved in those discussions (this is all written into the WAB, I believe). That leaves us with an absolute financial mess, and potentially puts the Government (assuming the Tories win) in a position whereby they spend a whole election campaign saying that they've made us free of needing to pay xyz to the EU, only to turn around shortly afterwards and say 'errm, actually, we do still have to pay some money and it's now a bit more than xyz.

    All a bit of a mess, to be honest, and I think if this does get read over the next three days there will be a lot of amendments tabled at changing things like this.

  17. #337
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    General election currently being mooted for early December. Unclear if they have the votes because they are trying to tie something to do with the WAB to it.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  18. #338
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    I'm wondering if there might be amendments against any bill/motion for a GE that ties it being granted only if No Deal is off the table, or the WAB goes through Parliament ahead of time. I don't know if they can do that, mind you.

    I'd rather a second referendum and then a GE - because I don't think the GE should have the withdrawal as it's major point. There are too many domestic issues that need attention but will become secondary to this ongoing ridiculousness.

  19. #339
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    That's what happened last time, right? Labour campaigned largely on other issues and outperformed expectations, which meant you had a majority for Brexit parties but with an absolute Frankenstein of an idea about what that should look like.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  20. #340
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    Yeah - I guess the fear (if there is one) on the Labour side is that the last campaign was when the issues of Brexit were relatively fresh and we hadn't had two years of complete parliamentary stalemate on the issue. Now you have a PM who's being very proactive in getting it done (if you believe his own words) and an electorate that's jaded on the issue.

    Plus, May was awful on the stump when campaigning. Johnson almost certainly won't be.

    If Labour can refresh their 2017 manifesto with a few additional key policies and get over the messaging that once the withdrawal is done the Tories are going to continue to ruin the country just like they have done for the past 9 years, but only with less oversight and restriction applied due to the loss of EU regulations on things, then they can probably gain a foothold. But I think that's a complex message to convey (despite me managing to squash it into a single sentence).

    Conservatives, meanwhile, will look to make the withdrawal a focus because they can say that Labour are delaying and have never defined a clear strategy of what the Labour withdrawal would look like, or could say that a Labour withdrawal will be remain in all but name. That's far easier to sell, for me.

    I really, really don't want a GE right now. I think it's pointless and more delaying when we're not going to actually get anything done in Parliament to deal with the issue of the WAB. If it's to be December 12th, you've then got another Queen's speech to do, a break over Christmas (I think they normally recess here for about 20 days) and then less than a month, in theory, to get the WAB through Parliament before the end of January.

    I'm sure there are entirely political reasons why the GE call has to be now - from the Tory side it seems like they can't lose based on the polls right now, and they've finally got a clear message on the withdrawal which has had a slight nod from Parliament in allowing it through the second reading and on to committee stage. But it seems so completely illogical for the best interests of the country to not sort it all out and then do a GE properly.

  21. #341
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    If there is a problem for the Tories, it's that a) Boris has nailed himself to a deal that the Brexit Party and DUP have condemned, so that gives Brexit hardliners the cover to break with the Tories over the issue, and b) that we don't know how much nailing himself to October 31st and failing to deliver could end up hurting him electorally. I did see a poll yesterday where they posited Brexit not being done by that date, and the Tory vote fell beneath Labour's - we'd be even more hung than before, though, with the only path to a government being a Lab/Lib alliance (who between them could command 334). However, we know that such an alliance is unlikely, both because Labour have refused to deal with the Lib Dems because they don't trust them after the coalition, while Jo Swinson has effectively refused to deal with Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is the leader.


    On the stump, Boris could go either way. I wouldn't be surprised if he stormed it. I equally wouldn't be surprised if he self-destructed. You know Corbyn will suddenly come to life and will perform pretty well, so you'd imagine Labour's position would improve, but the Tories could go either way.

    But for me, I'm not sure an election now helps anyone, either. It's a risky strategy for all involved - even Boris Johnson.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  22. #342
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    The Commons are currently voting on whether or not to have an early election. Expected to fail. They need a 2/3 majority. Labour expected to abstain, the others will vote against, so it's expected to go down.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  23. #343
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    That failed, but it seems like all parties are biting on the bill today to to call an election in December - between 9th and 12th.

    I'm not entirely sure why, but I assume it's because they can put down some amendment to the bill that will somehow tie Johnson's hands on the withdrawal agreement between now and the election?

    Meanwhile, Bercow is still set to step down as speaker on Thursday, with a new speaker elected on Monday immediately before parliament breaks for the election.

  24. #344
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Election is on. The current prediction based on a poll of polls is a majority of 76 for the Conservatives. That will give Boris a green light to do whatever he wants, basically.

    However, if you're feeling pessimistic, it's worth pointing out that the polls at the same stage in 2017 showed a potential majority of around 100 for the Conservatives and they ended up going backward. Campaigns matter. And Boris is about to get more scrutiny than he's ever had in his life.

    For better or worse these things are always just plain interesting.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  25. #345
    Senior Member Gooner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Location
    Newcastle upon Tyne
    Posts
    896
    Quote Originally Posted by Prime Time View Post
    Election is on. The current prediction based on a poll of polls is a majority of 76 for the Conservatives.
    I'll eat my hat if that happens...

    My guess? We end up in another hung parliament.

    I know I'll be voting Lib Dem this time round (same as the last two times too actually), even if it's useless as I live in a Labour stronghold.


    I've tried taking up column writing, check it out here!

    Words from a Gooner #2: 7 Treatments for Wrestlemania Fever

  26. #346
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    I probably agree with you about the hung parliament. We know from 2017 that Corbyn can campaign very well, and I'd expect them to do the same here - maybe not quite so well because last time he was within a week of becoming PM, and he's less fresh this time. But I still think he'll suddenly spring to life again and that you'll see Labour fight back from where they are at.

    I'm also expecting the Brexit Party to attack from Boris's right, and peel of a good amount of his support there. If there's one place they are really vulnerable to them, it's the fact that Nigel has already condemned Boris' deal as 'not Brexit' and they missed the promised deadline. Nigel can whip up a lot of animosity around that. A swing to the Brexit Party from the Tories in their current position of just 4% would leave the Conservatives short of their majority, even if the other parties positions were unchanged. And again, I think Labour are going to get a few % points stronger than they currently are.

    Tactical voting could also play a big part. I'm in a Labour safe seat so can vote for who I like. But if people are in competitive constituencies and decide to hold their nose and vote to block the Tories.... I mean, there's still an anti-Conservative majority in this country even if the Tories are the single most popular party. God knows what effect that could have if LD voters flock to Labour in the North and Labour voters flock to the LD's in the Southwest. Smart money is that wouldn't be good for the Conservatives. Trouble is, a lot of members of both parties dislike each other as much as they dislike the Conservatives - the question is how far does that extend amongst their general voters?

    The main thing, though, is that I don't trust any polling at this point. Ours is always less reliable than the Americans. The campaign always seems to change things and it hasn't even started. And lastly, the electorate is massively volatile right now, and prone to change quickly. We don't know until the end of November which way this thing is likely to go, and even then I'm not sure I believe it until John Curtice gives us his exit poll on election day.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  27. #347
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    A hung parliament is, to all intents and purposes, putting us back in exactly this position in six weeks time when it comes to the EU withdrawal - there won't be a majority with withdrawing from the EU in Parliament, but the major party (assuming it's still Tories) will be propped up on a supply deal by somebody.

    At a guess, I'd say the Conservatives comfortably stay the major party in Parliament - the only question is whether they get over 326 seats. They're going to get spanked by the SNP in Scotland, so that sets them back - they'll likely need to gain 20-22 seats or more in England and Wales to have a chance of a majority. That's likely not a major swing in terms of votes.

    Labour have an uphill struggle, but it's interesting to note that they're basically starting from the same position that they did in 2017, while Johnson has a much smaller lead than May did. May's lead crumbled because she had the charisma of a used insole, which likely won't be the case for Johnson, but the scrutiny he's going to come under is, as Prime says, going to be intense.

    It may well end up that the Brexit Party, if they run actively against Johnson, inadvertently kill off his chances of a majority and possibly Brexit should they siphon off votes from them without gaining MPs - that feels like an outside bet for now, but there's potential for some seats to be on a knife edge. One of the Southampton seats, for example, had a Tory MP win by about 40 votes last time from a Labour candidate - if the Brexit Party eats some of those 40, Labour have to fancy their chances there.

    I'm just hoping Johnson gets snapped struggling to eat a Meatball Subway at some point in the next couple of weeks. Red Ed got unstuck with a bacon sandwich, Theresa May didn't understand how to eat chips. Johnson accidentally pouring marinara sauce down his front could be the key to getting the Tories out.

  28. #348
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
    A hung parliament is, to all intents and purposes, putting us back in exactly this position in six weeks time when it comes to the EU withdrawal - there won't be a majority with withdrawing from the EU in Parliament, but the major party (assuming it's still Tories) will be propped up on a supply deal by somebody.

    The interesting question here is 'who'? It's not like the Tories have many potential allies left. They've burned the Lib Dems too recently for that, and if the DUP are to be believed they've burned that bridge as well. I don't see the UUP coming back in big numbers. If they're going to be the biggest party, odds are Brexit aren't going to have made enough ground to prop them up. The SNP would sooner eat broken glass.

    Their most natural pairing right now is with Labour of all people, and for obvious reasons that'll never happen.

    I just put my 'gut' feeling into a predictor and got the Tories as the biggest party but short by 30. Labour basically unchanged but down a couple, with the direction of travel (in seats, not votes) all to LD and SNP. Green to hold their one seat.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  29. #349
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    In sadder political news, Dick Braine is no longer the leader of UKIP.

    Labour have said they might agree to an IndyRef if they win power. On the one hand it's a bit like me offering to share the prize if I win the Ballon D'or. But it does open up the possibility of a temporary Lab/SNP alliance in the event of a hung parliament.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  30. #350
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    I didn't even know who was the leader of UKIP until he announced he was no longer the leader of UKIP. How they've fallen, it's akin to the BNP between 2004 and 2010ish where their support just fell through the floor. Just goes to show how important the cult of Farage was to them.

    Speaking of which, he's out there trying to get the Tories to agree to some kind of pact now or else there'll be Brexit party candidates running for every seat in England, Wales, and Scotland, apparently. The Tories are very publicly saying no already, for what it's worth.

  31. #351
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Boris can't agree to it, and he knows it. That's my feeling. Boris can't give up his deal for an electoral pact without looking like a schmuck who doesn't think he can win on his own (in spite of polls suggesting he can).

    My gut? Farage isn't doing this for Brexit. He's doing it because he knows Boris's predicament is a huge opportunity for him to be in the spotlight some more - and one where, in all likelihood, he won't actually put Corbyn into number 10.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  32. #352
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    I don't disagree with you there, Prime - Farage would never have set up the party had he not thought he could continue to be in the limelight. He's desperate for the attention.

    I imagine he'll be having his eighth(?) shot at being elected as an MP in December. Wouldn't surprise me to see him stand somewhere like Lincoln, a high leave voting constituency with a Labour MP.

  33. #353
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    If I had to predict, I think he might run for the seat vacated by Nick Boles.

    Though if he wanted to get in and not worry about unsettling Brexiter Tories, he'd run somewhere like Boston, or South Holland. Lincolnshire constituencies with far-higher leave percentages than any city, even one like Lincoln.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  34. #354
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Well, we got that one wrong. He's ruled out standing.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  35. #355
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    Interesting, isn't it? Looks like they're standing in every seat, otherwise.

  36. #356
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    He thinks he can do more good going around campaigning in all the seats as a cheerleader rather than standing himself in one individual seat. Not something Boris will want to hear. Also... quietly very good news for pretty much everyone else. No one else is likely to break in from Brexit, but this increases the chances of an extra per cent or two of the vote moving away from the Tories.

    And we've had our first gaffe story! Prospective Tory MP for Gower (Lab/Tory marginal, Labour majority of 3200-ish) made a comment about people on Benefits Street needing 'putting down'. Given Tory attitudes/policies towards the poor, it's caused a stir.

    We had this last time. As it's another snap election, you can expect more of these stories as people aren't properly vetted and come under a huge amount of scrutiny for the first time in their lives.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  37. #357
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    1,402
    As you say, happened last time in a number of cases too so I doubt this is the last of those kind of stories!

    I've just had an email from the People's Vote campaign suggesting that anywhere between 30% and 40% of people choosing to vote tactically could see a remain and second referendum majority in Parliament (although a hung Parliament overall). Not sure how many people are likely to take that route, I must admit, but does suggest there is a pretty clear possibility of the polls trending in that direction over the weeks to come, should it take off.

    As a note on that, I see the SDLP in Northern Ireland are standing three candidates aside to try and increase the likelihood of remain MPs being elected.
    Last edited by Oliver; 1 Week Ago at 09:22 AM.

  38. #358
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    In all likelihood those are votes that'll all go to Sinn Fein.

    They're about to have the vote for the new Speaker of the House, replacing John Bercow. I've got BBC parliament on my headphones while I'm working.

    EDIT: They're saying Sir Lindsay Hoyle (Lab) is the favourite.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  39. #359
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    They're giving their speeches now. A few laughs when someone's phone went off and Dame Winterton quipped 'order'. Howls of laughter when Chris Bryant said he sleeps with Erskine May by his bedside.

    Edward Leigh (Con) is now putting the chamber into a slumber.

    EDIT: Dame Laing (con) now speaking well.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

  40. #360
    Administrator Prime Time's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    4,136
    Lindsay Hoyle wins the first round by about 98. Meg Hillier and Edward Leigh are eliminated.

    "The worst moron is the one too stupid to realise they're a moron."

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •